Gaming analyst Michael Pachter has said in his annual industry report that he expects “the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios. Should the studios embrace Sony’s Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba’s HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come."

As reported by Spong, he goes on to give a number of predictions about the market share of the three consoles: he thinks that the PS3 will emerge victor, with 36% of the market, Nintendo with 34% and Microsoft with 30%. Significantly, he believes that “each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits.” The one factor that could upset the predictions is the hardware manufacturers' ability either to develop content internally or to secure third-party commitment for software designed exclusively for a single platform.” I think that more than anything could be what lets down the PS3.

As written before on PSPSPS, Sony’s had trouble securing those elusive platform exclusives. Kojima seems to continue his firm support for Sony’s console, but a lot of the big franchises are now multiplatform. In my opinion, Microsoft has had more success in securing console exclusives. Whether Sony will have the same degree of success remains to be seen, but at the moment the outlook isn’t good.

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